Towards the close of 2025, Warren Partners reviewed a wide spread of global outlooks and trend reports – over 130 in total – to get a sense of what 2026 may hold for businesses and markets. The selection reflects a world that feels less predictable and more tightly wound than it did even twelve months ago. Growth is slower, power is more concentrated and confidence – in institutions, markets and systems – is under strain.

Yet this is by no means a picture of uniform decline. Across these reports are clear signs of adaptation and selective momentum: capital is moving again, productivity gains from technology are beginning to show through and organisations that have invested in governance, data and discipline are better placed than the headlines suggest. The opportunity set is narrower, but it is also more clearly defined. Here’s our curated selection of the key insights.

Risk is no longer episodic
AXA’s latest Future Risks report captures a mood shift as much as a risk profile. In a survey of 26,595 people, 95% of experts and 93% of the public say crises have increased, yet fewer than one in five trust public authorities to manage future shocks effectively. Climate change still tops the risk list, but what stands out is the sense of “polycrisis”: risks arriving together, amplifying one another. This puts resilience firmly on the board agenda, rather than leaving it to crisis planning teams. Read the report here.

Power is concentrating fast
That sense of fragility is sharpened by concentration. Deloitte notes that technology, media and telecoms companies now account for 52.6% of the S&P 500’s market value, up from 19.1% in 2008. Value creation has become narrower, faster and more uneven. At the same time, AI is shifting from early adoption to embedded infrastructure: Deloitte expects 29% of adults in developed markets to see genAI search summaries daily in 2026, compared with 10% using standalone genAI apps. It raises questions for businesses about visibility and oversight as AI becomes built into platforms rather than chosen tools. Read the report here.

Growth is back, but thin
The European Commission’s Autumn forecast points to modest momentum rather than recovery. EU GDP growth is forecast at 1.4% in 2025 and 2026, with inflation easing towards target. But the assumptions matter: the outlook bakes in ongoing US–EU tariffs, with a headline 15% rate still in place. The message is not pessimism, but fragility. The challenge is less about picking the right forecast and more about staying flexible if it proves wrong. Read the report here.

Capital markets are reopening selectively
That caution shows up clearly in IPO markets. EY reports 914 IPOs raising US$110bn in the first three quarters of 2025, with momentum accelerating in Q3. Proceeds were up 89% year on year, but activity was heavily concentrated: India, the US and Greater China accounted for close to 80% of proceeds. Windows are opening, but briefly, and not for everyone. For leadership teams, optionality depends less on timing and more on preparation – governance, narrative and credibility are the price of entry. Read the report here.

Rates are doing more damage than headlines suggest
Fitch’s global outlook shows that while global growth remains positive, world GDP is forecast to slow to 2.4% in 2025, with US growth falling to 1.3%. Crucially, real interest rates remain positive across most advanced economies, keeping pressure on refinancing, valuations and deal maths. The shift here is psychological as much as financial: assumptions formed in the low-rate decade no longer hold, but many strategies still rely on them. Read the report here.

Marketing has a measurement problem
That gap between assumption and reality appears again in Forrester’s B2B predictions. Only 12% of B2B marketing leaders believe their organisations are structured to drive revenue effectively, even as AI and digital tools proliferate. Meanwhile, more than half of large B2B purchases now involve digital self-serve touchpoints, including high-value deals. The tension is clear: technology is accelerating, operating models are not. For boards, this is less about martech spend and more about accountability. Read the report here.

Calm currencies can be deceptive
ING’s FX outlook suggests volatility will remain subdued through 2026, driven by gradual policy convergence and fewer rate surprises. Historically, that kind of calm encourages carry trades, storing up vulnerability when shocks do land. Sterling, ING notes, continues to track relative growth and rates more than domestic politics. The risk here is behavioural: low FX volatility has historically encouraged risk-taking, leaving markets more exposed when conditions change. Read the report here.

Markets are rising but narrowing
J.P. Morgan’s year-ahead outlook reinforces the theme of concentration. A small group of US mega-cap stocks now accounts for over 30% of the S&P 500’s market capitalisation, a historically high level. Returns may be positive, but they are uneven, crowded and sensitive to sentiment shifts. For boards overseeing capital allocation, pensions or M&A, liquidity assumptions deserve more scrutiny than forecasts themselves. Read the report here.

Trade is fragmenting as a result of accumulated policy decisions
The OECD’s latest outlook reinforces that backdrop. Global growth is expected to slow to 2.9% by 2026, with inflation easing, but risks are rising beneath the surface. Trade-restrictive measures now affect over 10% of global imports, double pre-pandemic levels. Fragmentation is no longer a shock; it’s a condition – with trade and supply chain decisions having strategic impact far beyond operations. Read the report here.

Consumers are pushing back
Mintel’s global consumer predictions add a human counterweight to the year’s more technical narratives. 63% of UK adults say AI makes them value things created by humans more, pointing to growing fatigue with over-automation rather than outright rejection of technology. At the same time, traditional life stages continue to loosen: 48% of Brits believe having children is less important than in the past, while 59% of US consumers say they would rather spend on experiences than products. Together, these shifts suggest a quiet recalibration of what people value – and a reminder that efficiency alone is no longer the whole story. Get the report here.

Taken together, these insights point to a year where credibility and decision-making quality matter as much as growth. The challenge is not to predict the next turn precisely, but to build organisations that can absorb shocks, move when opportunities open up and retain confidence as conditions change.